Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.