The typical number of everyday killings each month in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new official statistics. However, public safety analysts have advised that homicide figures may not signal better countrywide stability.
Notable Reduction in Per-Day Figures
Officials reported an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November compared with roughly 87 when the President took the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the director of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.
“The outcome in killings that we’ve had during these months is very notable,” the President said, explaining that last month the least amount of murders were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.
Historical Background and Government Plan
Intense organized crime infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily military efforts to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent times. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data office.
That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than the US. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her national security plan for an apparently sharper drop in homicides in the current year.
At a press conference in August, the President declared: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”
The central pillars of the President's security plan encompass:
- Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
- Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
- Increased cooperation between various authorities.
Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns
Nevertheless, security experts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide data to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true considering the increase in different criminal activities such as people going missing.
“This would be excellent news if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”
Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.
“Numbers on homicides is no longer valid for assessing the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the will to properly identify and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”
Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it could mask days when there were especially spiking levels of killings.
“Employing the daily mean renders high peaks of violence invisible,” he said.
Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress
An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for serious crimes, according to official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.
“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.
Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration
But in spite of these actions, Mexico is still beset by high violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last year.
A short time after, many thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their frustration at corruption and drug violence.
“The government frames [data] in a way to build a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” the analyst said.
